| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Murray State | 38-14 | 1375.9 | +28.2 | 1404.1 | 85.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Marshall | 26-28 | 1404.1 | +3.8 | 1407.8 | 29.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Nevada | 27-20 | 1407.8 | +5.3 | 1413.2 | 37.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Jacksonville State | 13-23 | 1413.2 | +1.4 | 1414.6 | 36.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Kansas | 0-55 | 1414.6 | -57.0 | 1357.6 | 14.4% |
| 7 | Oct 13 2026 | W | Delaware | 33-30 | 1359.4 | +17.0 | 1376.5 | 33.4% |